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Title (Arabic)

مكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية

DOI

10.33095/jeas.v13i46.1273

Abstract

The paper explores the predictive power of financial market indicators as leading signals for shifts in the real economy. By analyzing the historical relationship between asset price movements—including stock market returns, interest rate spreads, and volatility measures—and the various phases of the business cycle, the research evaluates how effectively financial data can anticipate economic expansions and contractions. The study highlights that because financial markets are inherently forward-looking and aggregate the collective expectations of diverse economic agents, they often reflect changes in investor sentiment and risk appetite months before they manifest in traditional macroeconomic indicators like GDP or unemployment rates. The findings suggest that specific financial variables, particularly yield curve inversions and equity market corrections, serve as robust early warning systems for impending recessions. However, the paper also cautions that the increasing complexity of global financial systems and the influence of unconventional monetary policies can sometimes decouple market signals from economic realities, leading to "false positives." Ultimately, the research advocates for an integrated forecasting approach that combines high-frequency financial data with traditional econometric models to enhance the accuracy of business cycle predictions and provide policymakers with more reliable tools for economic stabilization.

Abstract (Arabic)

مكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية

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